Ensemble prediction for nowcasting with a convection-permitting model - II: forecast error statistics

A 24-member ensemble of 1-h high-resolution forecasts over the Southern United Kingdom is used to study short-range forecast error statistics. The initial conditions are found from perturbations from an ensemble transform Kalman filter. Forecasts from this system are assumed to lie within the bounds of forecast error of an operational forecast system. Although noisy, this system is capable of producing physically reasonable statistics which are analysed and compared to statistics implied from a variational assimilation system. The variances for temperature errors for instance show structures that reflect convective activity. Some variables, notably potential temperature and specific humidity perturbations, have autocorrelation functions that deviate from 3-D isotropy at the convective-scale (horizontal scales less than 10 km). Other variables, notably the velocity potential for horizontal divergence perturbations, maintain 3-D isotropy at all scales. Geostrophic and hydrostatic balances are studied by examining correlations between terms in the divergence and vertical momentum equations respectively. Both balances are found to decay as the horizontal scale decreases. It is estimated that geostrophic balance becomes less important at scales smaller than 75 km, and hydrostatic balance becomes less important at scales smaller than 35 km, although more work is required to validate these findings. The implications of these results for high-resolution data assimilation are discussed

Self‐pollination in island and mainland populations of the introduced hummingbird‐pollinated plant, Nicotiana glauca (Solanaceae)

Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/142032/1/ajb20672.pd

Quantifying uncertainty, variability and likelihood for ordinary differential equation models

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In many applications, ordinary differential equation (ODE) models are subject to uncertainty or variability in initial conditions and parameters. Both, uncertainty and variability can be quantified in terms of a probability density function on the state and parameter space.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The partial differential equation that describes the evolution of this probability density function has a form that is particularly amenable to application of the well-known method of characteristics. The value of the density at some point in time is directly accessible by the solution of the original ODE extended by a single extra dimension (for the value of the density). This leads to simple methods for studying uncertainty, variability and likelihood, with significant advantages over more traditional Monte Carlo and related approaches especially when studying regions with low probability.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>While such approaches based on the method of characteristics are common practice in other disciplines, their advantages for the study of biological systems have so far remained unrecognized. Several examples illustrate performance and accuracy of the approach and its limitations.</p

Distribution and habitat segregation on different spatial scales among diploid, tetraploid and hexaploid cytotypes of Senecio carniolicus (Asteraceae) in the Eastern Alps

The spatial distribution of cytotypes can provide valuable insights into evolutionary patterns of polyploid complexes. In a previous study the macro-scale distribution of the three main cytotypes in Senecio carniolicus (Asteraceae) within the Eastern Alps was characterized. Employing a roughly 12-fold extended sampling, the present study focuses on unravelling patterns of cytotype distribution on the meso- and microscale and on correlating those with ecological properties of the growing sites. DAPI flow cytometry of dried samples was used to determine DNA ploidy level in 5033 individuals from 100 populations spread over the entire Eastern Alpine distribution area of S. carniolicus. Descriptors of microhabitats as well as spatial data were recorded in the field, and analysed with a mixed-effects ANOVA. Extensive variation in DNA ploidy levels (2x, 3x, 4x, 5x, 6x, 7x, 8x, 9x) was detected. Of the main cytotypes, diploids and hexaploids were widespread and had strongly overlapping distributions resulting in the frequent occurrence of cytotype mixtures (half of the investigated populations), whereas tetraploids were disjunctly distributed and occurred in the south-west and the east of the species' distribution area. In spite of the frequent co-occurrence of cytotypes, only 1 % of the samples belonged to secondary cytotypes (3x, 5x, 7x, 8x, 9x). Diploids, tetraploids and hexaploids were altitudinally segregated, but with broad overlap. Similarly, highly significant differences in vegetation and rock cover as well as microhabitat exposure were found between the main cytotypes. Senecio carniolicus shows a remarkable diversity of cytotypes. The distribution of the three main cytotypes (2x, 4x, 6x) has been shaped by Pleistocene glaciations to different extents. Whereas tetraploids are nearly entirely restricted to refugia, hexaploids colonized areas that were extensively glaciated. Diploid and hexaploid individuals often co-occur in mixed populations, where they are spatially and ecologically segregated at both the meso-scale (altitudinal differentiation, exposure of the growing site) and the micro-scale (cover of vegetation and bare rock). With regard to the ecological parameters investigated, the tetraploid cytotype occupies an intermediate position. The rareness of secondary cytotypes suggests the presence of strong pre- or post-zygotic mating barriers

Toward reliable ensemble Kalman filter estimates of CO 2 fluxes

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/95036/1/jgrd18220.pd

Breeding systems in Tolpis (Asteraceae) in the Macaronesian islands: the Azores, Madeira and the Canaries

Plants on oceanic islands often originate from self-compatible (SC) colonizers capable of seed set by self fertilization. This fact is supported by empirical studies, and is rooted in the hypothesis that one (or few) individuals could find a sexual population, whereas two or more would be required if the colonizers were self-incompatible (SI). However, a SC colonizer would have lower heterozygosity than SI colonizers, which could limit radiation and diver sification of lineages following establishment. Limited evidence suggests that several species-rich island lineages in the family Asteraceae originated from SI colonizers with some ‘‘leakiness’’ (pseudo-self-compatibility, PSC) such that some self-seed could be produced. This study of Tolpis (Asteraceae) in Macaronesia provides first reports of the breeding system in species from the Azores and Madeira, and additional insights into variation in Canary Islands. Tolpis from the Azores and Madeira are predominately SI but with PSC. This study suggests that the breeding sys tems of the ancestors were either PSC, possibly from a single colonizer, or from SI colonizers by multiple dis seminules either from a single or multiple dispersals. Long distance colonists capable of PSC combine the advantages of reproductive assurance (via selfing) in the establishment of sexual populations from even a single colonizer with the higher heterozygosity resulting from its origin from an outcrossed source population. Evolution of Tolpis on the Canaries and Madeira has generated diversity in breeding systems, including the origin of SC. Macaronesian Tolpis is an excellent system for studying breeding system evolution in a small, diverse lineage.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Distribution map of Ambrosia artemisiifolia L. (Asteraceae) in Italy

The spread of the invasive and allergenic Ambrosia artemisiifolia L. in Italy was analysed and mapped using distribution data from a wide range of sources. Ambrosia artemisiifolia occupies 1057 floristic quadrants which are mostly distributed in the Po plain. The distribution obtained represents the basis to implement urgent management strategies